Earth and Environmental Sciences
English (United States)
The tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are known to cause intense damage and loss of property over United States. Thus, it is important for coupled climate models to simulate and predict the tropical cyclones. It is widely known that the El NiÃ±o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic. In this study, the ability of the coupled climate model, the flux-adjusted version of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratoryâs Forecast Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model, FLOR-FA, to simulate the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic in general and in the sub-basins is explored. FLOR-FA model successfully simulates the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones with reduced activity during El NiÃ±o and enhanced activity during La NiÃ±a in the North Atlantic. The model also captures the effect of ENSO on the environmental factors important for ENSO and the tropical cyclone relationship such as sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, relative humidity and rainfall consistent with observations. During El NiÃ±o, the model simulates strong vertical wind shear, low relative humidity and reduced intensity of rainfall that creates unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclone activity. Further, weak vertical wind shear, high relative humidity and increased intensity of rainfall is simulated during La NiÃ±a leading to favorable conditions for the tropical cyclone activity. Despite some of the modelâs inconsistencies compared to observations, the FLOR-FA model has better simulation of tropical cyclones and factors that affect tropical cyclone development, and therefore will aid in better prediction of the tropical cyclone occurrences in the North Atlantic.
Finlayson, Marjahn Danielle, "Influence of ENSO on Tropical Cyclones in North Atlantic in a high-resolution climate model" (2015). Honors Theses - All. 1469.
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